Switch will be Christmas 2020’s best-selling console, analyst projects

PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles are expected to drive record game spending in the US market this Christmas, but Switch will likely come out on top.

That’s according to a new note published by NPD Group’s Mat Piscatella, in which the US games analyst reiterated the commonly held belief among industry pundits that both next-gen consoles will likely sell out of all available inventory when they release next month.

Piscatella suggested that Nintendo could take advantage of the PS5 and Xbox Series stock shortages and continue its strong sales run in 2020.

“PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series consoles should be among the hottest holiday gifting items of 2020. Units will be tough to find with continued strong demand into 2021,” the analyst wrote.

“Switch will also be a hot holiday gifting item with more households picking up multiple Switch consoles in the fourth quarter. The lack of available inventory of new PlayStations and Xbox systems will leave Switch as an appealing available option (although supply may still be difficult to find).”

The note projects that US consumer spending on games will reach $13.4 billion in the combined November and December period, a 24 percent increase year-on-year.

The Holiday months could take annual consumer spend for 2020 to more than $50 billion, Piscatella wrote, which would represent a new record for the US market.

The NPD analyst expects Call of Duty to continue its 12-year-run as the US market’s best-selling game franchise, and projects fewer price promotions than usual for current-gen console hardware.

“The surge in hardware demand seen throughout the spring and summer months of 2020 has left inventories for PlayStation 4 and Xbox One consoles lean, leaving little incentive to price promote,” Piscatella explained.

“While some bundling for legacy hardware may exist, particularly around Black Friday, I do not see price promotion being a significant factor in the holiday 2020 market.”

The PlayStation 5 release date is November 12 in the US, Japan, Canada, Mexico, Australia and South Korea. The rest of the world will get the console a week later on November 19.

Xbox Series X is priced at $499/€499/£449 and Xbox Series S costs $300/$300/£249. Both consoles are scheduled to launch on November 10.