Nintendo predicts record-breaking Switch 2 launch
Switch 2 will sell more than 15 million units at launch, Nintendo forecasts
Nintendo has forecast 15 million sales for Nintendo Switch 2 during its launch window, which would make it one of the fastest-selling game consoles ever.
In its forecast for the next fiscal year, ending March 2026, Nintendo predicts that it will sell 15 million Switch 2 consoles and 45 million games.
This would exceed the just under 15 million consoles sold by Switch in its first business year (and it launched earlier in the year). PlayStation 4 and PlayStation 5 launched later in the year, and sold around 7.5 million units each, with the latter suffering stock issues due to the pandemic.
Many analysts expect Switch 2 to perform far better in its launch window, especially following strong pre-orders for the system, which caused president Shuntaro Furukawa to warn of shortages.
One risk factor that has likely made Nintendo’s forecast more conservative is US President Trump’s tariffs, which have already forced it to raise some hardware prices, and could yet target foreign video games.
In its results for the year ended March 2025, Nintendo reports that it sold 10.8 million Nintendo Switch consoles, bringing its lifetime total to 152.1 million – just shy of its best-selling system ever, Nintendo DS (154m).
THE BEST-SELLING SWITCH GAMES
*As of March 31, 2025 (compared to December 2024)
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 68.20m (+0.85m)
- Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 47.82m (+0.38m)
- Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 36.24m (+0.36m)
- Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – 32.81m (+0.19m)
- Super Mario Odyssey – 29.28m (+0.24m)
- Pokémon Scarlet & Violet – 26.79m (+0.43m)
- Pokemon Sword/Shield – 26.72m (+0.12m)
- Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom – 21.73m (+0.18m)
- Super Mario Party – 21.16m (+0.6m)
- New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe – 18.25 (+0.19m)
Nintendo expects to sell just 4.5 million Switch consoles in the current fiscal year, which would bring Switch’s lifetime total just short of the best-selling console ever, PlayStation 2 (160m).
Dr Serkan Toto, CEO of Tokyo-based game industry consultancy Kantan Games, told VGC he was unsurprised Nintendo’s forecasts were less than many analysts, considering the current climate.
“The finance world at least is looking at one number, and one number only, today: hardware sales forecast. When it comes to forecasts, I would not want to be in Nintendo’s shoes now,” he said.
“God knows how the tariff situation will evolve even over the next few days, so how is a company supposed to predict sales for an entire year?
“If you look at the forecasts made by analysts (including yours truly) the last few weeks, Nintendo’s number is more on the low side. With good reason: Nintendo has always been conservative when it comes to making forecasts, and now literally is the worst time ever to change this approach.”
Year-on-year, Switch hardware sales are down more than 30%, and software sales are down 22%. Nintendo says the previous fiscal year was “substantially” driven by The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom and Super Mario Bros. Wonder, but still views these sales as steady for a platform that has entered its ninth year.
The company says its number of annual playing users remains above 100 million.
In software for the full fiscal year (April 2024 through March 2025), Super Mario Party Jamboree sold 7.48 million units, The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom sold 4.09 million units, and Paper Mario: The Thousand-Year Door sold 2.10 million units.
The total number of million-seller titles during this fiscal year reached 24, including titles from other software publishers.
Looking ahead, Nintendo plans to release Pokémon Legends: Z-A for Switch in late 2025, and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond during 2025.
Nintendo Switch 2 will be released on June 5, alongside Mario Kart World and Nintendo Switch 2 Welcome Tour, as well as The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition and The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition.
Nathan Naidu, BI analyst, told Bloomberg: “Nintendo’s softer-than-expected fiscal 2026 sales and profit guidance vs. consensus is in line with an historically conservative stance, which tariffs probably justify. Positive pre-order trends in Japan, the US and other key markets suggest the company might achieve the 15 million-unit sales goal earlier for its Switch 2 video-game console.
“The 45 million software-unit goal also seems beatable, with the strong lineup of third-party games — including Cyberpunk 2077 — and in-house ones helping activate or entice upgrades among Nintendo’s 366 million users.”
